Here is a list of academic papers and presentations that describe or make use of the models.

If you use the in your own work, please be sure to credit it appropriately, citing the papers that are listed in the files you download. See the About page.


The science behind the models

S. Pfenninger and I. Staffell, 2016. Long-term patterns of European PV output using 30 years of validated hourly reanalysis and satellite data. Energy, 114, 1251–1265.

I. Staffell and S. Pfenninger, 2016. Using Bias-Corrected Reanalysis to Simulate Current and Future Wind Power Output. Energy, 114, 1224–1239.


Select Papers

With Christian Grams, now of Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (Germany), Remo Beerli and Heini Wernli (ETH Zürich) we have published a paper in Nature Climate Change showing how a new understanding of continental-scale weather regimes and greater cooperation between countries could dramatically smooth the output of wind farms across Europe:

C.M. Grams, R. Beerli, S. Pfenninger, I. Staffell and H. Wernli, 2017. *[Balancing Europe’s wind power output through spatial deployment informed by weather regimes.](* Nature Climate Change, 7, 557–562.


With Fabrizio Fattori and Norma Anglani of Università degli Studi di Pavia (Italy) we published a paper in Energy showing that high concentrations of solar PV will have significant effects on the power system of northern Italy, and how electricity storage can help to reduce peak demand, ramping rates and over-generation.

F. Fattori, N. Anglani, I. Staffell and S. Pfenninger, 2017. *[High solar photovoltaic penetration in the absence of substantial wind capacity: Storage requirements and effects on capacity adequacy.](* Energy, in press.


Science using the

S. Pfenninger, 2017. Dealing with multiple decades of hourly wind and PV time series in energy models: A comparison of methods to reduce time resolution and the planning implications of inter-annual variability. Applied Energy, 197, 1–13.

O. Schmidt, A. Hawkes, A. Gambhir and I. Staffell, 2017. The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates. Nature Energy, 2, 17110.

J. Bosch, I. Staffell and A.D. Hawkes, 2017. Temporally-explicit and spatially-resolved global onshore wind energy potentials. Energy, 131, 207–217.

D. Hdidouan and I. Staffell, 2017. The impact of climate change on the levelised cost of wind energy. Renewable Energy, 101, 575–592.

I. Staffell, 2017. Measuring the progress and impacts of decarbonising British electricity. Energy Policy, 102, 463–475.

R. Green and I. Staffell, 2017. “Prosumage” and the British electricity market. Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, 6, 1, 33–49.

A. Vijay, N. Fouquet, I. Staffell and A. Hawkes, 2017. The value of electricity and reserve services in low carbon electricity systems. Applied Energy, 201, 111–123.

C.F. Heuberger, E.S. Rubin, I. Staffell, N. Shah and N. Mac Dowell, 2017. Power capacity expansion planning considering endogenous technology cost learning. Applied Energy, 204, 831–845.

C.F. Heuberger, I. Staffell, N. Shah and N. Mac Dowell, 2017. A systems approach to quantifying the value of power generation and energy storage technologies in future electricity networks. Computers & Chemical Engineering, in press.

R. Green, D. Pudjianto, I. Staffell and G. Strbac, 2016. Market Design for Long-Distance Trade in Renewable Electricity. The Energy Journal, 37, 5–22.

C.F. Heuberger, I. Staffell, N. Shah and N. Mac Dowell, 2016. Quantifying the Value of CCS for the Future Electricity System. Energy & Environmental Science, 9, 2497–2510.

S. Samsatli, I. Staffell and N.J. Samsatli, 2016. Optimal design and operation of integrated wind-hydrogen-electricity networks for decarbonising the domestic transport sector in Great Britain. I.J. Hydrogen Energy, 41(1), 447–475.

N. Mac Dowell and I. Staffell, 2016. The role of flexible CCS in the UK’s future energy system. I.J. Greenhouse Gas Control, 48(2), 327–344.

I. Staffell and R. Green, 2016. Is there still merit in the merit order stack? The impact of dynamic constraints on optimal plant mix. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 31(1), 43‒53.

B.G. Pollet, I. Staffell and K.A. Adamson, 2016. The Energy Landscape in the Republic of South Africa. SpringerBriefs in Energy: Berlin.

I. Staffell and R. Green, 2014. How does wind farm performance decline with age? Renewable Energy, 66, 775–786.

S. Pfenninger and J. Keirstead, 2015. Renewables, nuclear or fossil fuels? Scenarios forgreat Britain’s power system considering costs, emissions and energy security. Applied. Energy 152, 82–93.

Conference Presentations

Watch Iain Staffell speak at the 2016 Energy Systems Conference in London on Modelling Europe’s current and future renewable power output.